Abstract
Objective: To examine the impact of El Salvador’s unprecedented mass incarcera- tion policy on crime. Methods: The identification strategy of this paper exploits the launch of the incar- ceration policy in El Salvador, which increased the country’s prison population by 150% in just one year, propelling it to the top of global incarceration rankings. The methodology consists of fixed-effects models. Data for homicides comes from the National Civil Police, while data for other crimes comes from El Salvador’s Multi- purpose Household Survey . Results: El Salvador’s unprecedented mass incarceration policy reduced homi- cides by 42%. Further, evidence suggests that the policy reduced street robberies by 20% and rapes by 62%, but had no measurable impact on assault, larceny , or motor vehicle theft. Conclusion: These findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the selective ef- fectiveness of p